Black Swan, Second Act: A Dress Rehearsal for the World After the Pandemic

Maria V. Sokolova is an international trade expert based in Geneva.

Around a year ago, when over half of the world was on a lockdown, I wrote about how the world was doing ballet-like pirouettes because of COVID-19. This black swan event has shaken the global economy, but where are we one year later? We have entered the second act: we are a bit tired; we wonder how far into the storyline we are, and we know for sure just one thing – this is not yet the end.

The most complex moves require a partner

The world is still fighting the pandemic, and the ballet pirouettes are not over, becoming more complex and nuanced over time. Many of the most famous and complex ballet moves are done as a part of a “pas de deux,” where the ballerina performs moves with the help of (or while being lifted by) her partner. It is not just a matter of strength, but timing, trust, and concentration. The ballet dancer holds his partner steadily while she is doing a pose or continuing the movement.

As I described previously, we were all buying time to get more data for a vaccine to be found. When scientists succeeded, the world heaved a sigh of relief. However, this was not the end of the scientists’ work, and not at all the end of the pandemic. The discovery of multiple vaccines put pressure on quickly creating production and distribution plans. Apart from supply speculation and shortages, trade disputes and the politicization of some vaccine brands have distorted the efficiency of the vaccine rollout. Speculation about the efficacy of various vaccines, regulatory clashes, restrictions on vaccine exports, and general criticism of vaccination efforts have also posed challenges.

If something is repeated too many times, it becomes average

Growing up in Moscow, one is spoiled with access to art. There is either a gallery opening or an exhibition opening, or a new world-class theatre performance, or a global artist coming to give a pop-up concert all the time. In this rich artistic environment, going to the Bolshoi became just one of many other events happening – and the global pandemic has become part of our everyday life, being drowned in other news that competes for the shock value. 

A year ago, everyone was looking at daily changes in new infections, cheering for medical workers, and witnessing defiance against lockdowns because the pandemic was the centerpiece of the news. Now the news is back to focusing on financial stocks, wars, and celebrity divorces, while we skip to another channel if the pandemic news isn’t directly relevant to our own region.  People have limited scope and capacity for attention, and over time we get exhausted paying attention to something that does not concern us directly.

Before a population of black swans was discovered in Australia, there was a saying in 15th century Britain: “A good person is as hard to find as a black swan.” Given the number of black swans that were later discovered in Australia, Britain should have had a problem finding a bad person. In the same manner, a proper global response to this pandemic will teach us how to solve other global problems.

The pandemic is no longer the centerpiece of the global response

The corps de ballet (literal translation “body of the ballet”) is a group of ballerinas that are not principal dancers or soloists—they dance together. They quite often do extremely complex pas in a perfect absolute synchronicity – to the extent that in the best ballet theatres of the world when a group of 10 people jump, you hear only one unified landing on the floor. The group moves in ideal harmony, undifferentiated from the moves of a single person.

Governments around the world are publicizing either their vaccination rates, or criticizing the vaccination rates of others. In the meantime, there are families still torn apart, university students that have never been to a university building, and marriages on Zoom. The changing regulations, potential recognition of vaccinations, and quarantine requirements – occur at an uneven gallop to lezginka (folk dance) pace, making it almost impossible for regular citizens to follow what is happening.

Swan Lake’s most famous dance is the dance of the cygnets – the four little swans. Their epic synchronicity is breathtaking, and this is what spectators come to see – not a whole performance of each cygnet doing its own dance at a different pace. In the same manner, governments should put the interests of all citizens at the heart of their decision making when enacting or changing regulations.

On pointe comes after the barre

Ballet’s hardest work is not on stage, but in the training class. Before you can stand on your toes, you need to increase your strength, listen to the music and be precise to a second in your moves. You also need to feel the moves of others around you before you move. Exercise on pointe comes after the work out at the barre – your own, and others around you.

Vaccination rates are picking up in some developed countries, while developing countries, on average, cannot keep up due to a lack of supply and insufficient infrastructure. To have a world that is accustomed to the aftermath of the pandemic, we need to work out how to operate together – it is not enough to have local solutions when you have a global problem. Some countries combine reopening everything in the economy with complete closure of the borders, in an attempt to keep new variants of the virus out. While for some period of time this is successful, it takes a toll in the long run both on the economy and the mental wellbeing of citizens.  Buying time in the first waves allowed us to get some information. Now we need to use this information most efficiently to revive the world in response to the new reality.

No one goes to the ballet to watch one ballerina dance. When we go to ballet, we want to see the whole show – perfect synchronicity of corps de ballet, the male ballet dancer helping the prima do even more complex moves, and all of this with the grandeur of something special and outstanding in our lives. Ballet does not need words to sing to our hearts.

In the same manner, in this act of the pandemic performance, we are observing whether the individual countries in a globalized world can perform well together.

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